When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful

And yet it matters: referendum campaigns and vote decision in Eastern Europe

Referendums campaigns are important and earlier research closely analysed their general functioning, effects on turnout, and the importance of media and information for voting behaviour. However, the role of referendum campaigns as such (with all its components) in shaping voting behaviour was widely neglected. This article seeks to partially fill this gap in the literature and argues that referendum campaign is an important predictor of the voting decision as long as people perceive it as informative and follow it. We investigate this effect in the context of three referendums organized in 2015–2016 in Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia. The results indicate that these two variables explain the decision of citizens to support referendums across different settings. Their effects are consistent and significantly stronger than alternative explanations employed in the literature such as the limited effect of campaigns, second-order elections, partisan cues or amount of information received

Referendum policies across political systems

This article compares the use of referendums across political regimes over time in Europe. It does so on the basis of a new typology that differentiates between policy domains and degrees of abstraction. The analysis shows different patterns in referendum use between authoritarian regimes, countries in transition and democracies. In addition to the variation in policy domains, the findings indicate different institutional features within the polity types: the process of initiation, the turnout in referendums and the rate of approval. The empirical evidence draws on an original dataset of 620 referendums organised at national level in Europe between 1793 and 2017

Policy agenda and legitimation: referendums on interethnic relations in Central and Eastern Europe

The increasing use of referendums in contemporary societies raises several questions about their emergence. Among these, it is unclear why controversial and sensitive issues are subjected to popular vote. So far, limited research has investigated why referendums on interethnic relations are initiated. This article seeks to address this gap in the literature and analyzes these reasons by focusing on all five referendums called on interethnic relations in Central and Eastern Europe. These referendums are those organized in Estonia (1992), Latvia (1998 and 2012), Hungary (2004) and Slovenia (2004). The findings of our qualitative analysis reveal that the initiators were driven either by agenda-setting or policy legitimation incentives

Calling referendums on domestic policies: how political elites and citizens differ

Most national level referendums in Europe since 1793 are initiated either by political elites or by citizens. It remains unclear why these two types of initiators call for referendums. This article aims to explain under what circumstances political elites and citizens call referendums on domestic policies. The analysis is conducted at country level using an original data set that covers 461 national level referendums in Europe between 1793 and 2019. It tests the influence of four institutional variables that in theory are expected to have a divergent effect for the two types of initiators. The experience with direct democracy increases the likelihood to have referendums called by elites and reduces the incidence of citizen-initiated referendums. More authoritarian countries and longer time passed from referendums in a neighboring country explain why political elites initiate referendums. Coalition governments are more prone to citizen-initiated referendums on domestic policies compared to single-party governments

Walking the walk or just talking the talk? VMRO‐BND’s efforts to become a mass party

Many populist radical right parties compete on a regular basis in the Bulgarian legislative elections. Among these, the VMRO–Balgarsko Natsionalno Dvizhenie (VMRO-BND, IMRO–Bulgarian National Movement) enjoys the greatest organizational stability and maintains a regular presence in politics and society despite volatile electoral performance. Using qualitative content analysis of official party documents (programs, statutes, and policy papers) and media reports, this article argues that the organizational stability of the VMRO-BND stems from its grassroots efforts to establish deep links in society. While its membership is limited, the local activities of the party between and during elections, and its network of loosely-affiliated organizations create a grandiose impression of presence across Bulgaria. Through this presence, VMRO-BND fosters a sense of belonging for its members which in turn supports the party’s goal of achieving a so-called “national cultural unity” and the preservation of Bulgarian traditions. Internally, VMRO-BND provides room for non-member participation and bottom-up initiatives from local activists, while remaining strongly centralized at the top around its leader, Krasimir Karakachanov. Overall, VMRO-BND reveals the importance populist radical right parties place on social presence, even when membership numbers are low

When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful

Direct Democracy and Policies : Mapping Out Practices and Success Factors

There is an increased interest in democratic innovations as a way to foster citizens’ direct participation in the decision-making process and counteract the ‘democratic malaise’. Governments around the globe have adopted various mechanisms to implement participatory measures in political decision-making. Nevertheless, referendums remain the most widespread and established instrument in the repertoire of democratic innovations and their impact on modern politics is indisputable since more and more policies are decided via a popular vote. This dissertation studies the process of referendums throughout history and identifies factors behind referendums’ success. The first article explores the trajectory of referendum use in Europe using an original dataset of 630 referendums organised in 48 countries. A policy-based typology is developed and applied as a tool for mapping out the referendum practice in the last two centuries (1793–2019), revealing the salient issues in different societies at various moments in time. The second article investigates factors behind the adoption of recent referendums. The comparative analysis is based on 31 national level top-down referendums organised in Europe over the course of a decade. The results indicate that the size of parliamentary majority and the clarity of party cues play an influential role in the outcome of a referendum. Interestingly, binding referendums appear to be less successful than the nonbinding ones. The third article zooms into the policy area of moral and ethical issues and scrutinises abortion referendums held during the last four decades. This is a qualitative study employing the QCA method to analyse twelve nation-wide referendums on abortion conducted in four countries (Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Switzerland). The findings suggest that relative consensus in the parliament, support of medical experts and level of secularisation play a major role in the adoption of a policy. The fourth article represents a first tentative attempt to move beyond the dichotomous definition of success and examine instead the degree of approval within referendums irrespective of their formal outcome. According to the findings, referendums that are mandatory, conducted in Eastern Europe and oriented towards change receive more Yes votes. More importantly, the effects differ significantly across policy fields, implying that distinct mechanisms might be at play. Overall, the results of these studies indicate that the design of a referendum and actors involved do matter for the success of a popular vote. ------------- I årtionden har vi bevittnat ett ökat intresse för demokratiska innovationer som ett sätt att främja medborgarnas direkta deltagande i beslutsprocessen och motverka den ’demokratiska sjukan’ –medborgarens politiska fjärmande. Regeringar runt om i världen har implementerat olika mekanismer för att öka folkligt deltagande i politiskt beslutsfattande. Icke desto mindre är folkomröstningar fortfarande det mest utbredda och etablerade instrumentet bland demokratiska innovationer och deras betydelse i dagens politiska system är obestridlig då fler och fler politiska beslut fattas genom en folkröstning. Denna avhandling studerar folkomröstningsprocesser genom historien och identifierar faktorer bakom folkomröstningars framgång. Den första artikeln utforskar folkomröstningar i Europa med hjälp av en originaluppsättning bestående av 630 folkomröstningar organiserade i 48 länder. En policybaserad typologi utvecklas och tillämpas som ett verktyg för att kartlägga folkomröstningspraxis under de senaste två århundradena (1793–2019). Genom den får vi insyn i vilka som varit framträdande frågor i olika samhällen vid olika tidpunkter. Den andra artikeln undersöker faktorerna bakom framgången för de senaste folkomröstningarna. Den jämförande analysen baseras på 31 folkomröstningar på nationell nivå, organiserade i Europa inom en tidsram på ett drygt decennium. Resultaten visar att storleken på den parlamentariska majoriteten bakom förslaget och tydligheten i partiers signaler spelar en inflytelserik roll i resultatet av en folkomröstning. Intressant nog verkar bindande folkomröstningar vara mindre framgångsrika än rådgivande folkomröstningar. Den tredje artikeln tar en närmare titt på moraliska och etiska frågor och granskar folkomröstningar om aborter som hölls i Europa under de senaste fyra decennierna. Det är en kvalitativ studie som använder QCA-metoden för att analysera tolv landsomfattande folkomröstningar om abort i fyra länder (Italien, Irland, Portugal och Schweiz). Resultaten tyder på att relativ konsensus i parlamentet, stöd från medicinska experter och landets sekulariseringsnivå spelar en viktig roll i antagandet av en politisk linje. I den fjärde artikeln gör jag ett första preliminärt försök att gå bortom en dikotom definition av framgång och istället undersöka graden av godkännande i folkomröstningar oavsett deras formella resultat. Enligt resultaten får folkomröstningar som är obligatoriska, genomförda i Östeuropa och inriktade på förändring fler ja-röster. Ännu viktigare är att effekterna skiljer sig avsevärt mellan olika politikområden, vilket antyder att olika mekanismer spelar en roll här. Sammantaget tyder resultaten i avhandlingen att utformningen av en folkomröstning och de aktörer som är inblandade spelar en roll för en folkomröstnings framgång

Party cues and pre-campaign attitudes: voting choice in referendums in Eastern Europe

Political parties provide cues that influence how people vote in referendums. We know little about how this works against the attitudes held by voters before campaigns. This article analyzes under what circumstances voters in referendums consider their choice to be the result of party cues or of their opinions prior to a campaign. It focuses on seven referendums organized in Eastern Europe between 2015 and 2019. The results show that party cues may shape voting behavior when political parties are trusted, cues are clear, and citizens are media users. Political activity, information and interest in politics make pre-campaign attitudes important

Populists and referendums in Europe: dispelling the myth

Many researchers, journalists and politicians are inclined to connect populism and referendums. While in theory the two rest on similar principles, in practice this is not the case. This article shows that populist political elites make limited use of referendums compared both to their rhetoric and to non‐populists. Our findings indicate that the use of referendums is not a reflection of populist politics. They also illustrate how populists may initiate referendums strategically, and they win them quite often. The analysis draws on all sixty‐four national level referendums in Europe initiated by political elites between 2000 and 2019